NDRC pushes a number of major projects to release signals of accelerated and stable growth

Securities Daily The National Development and Reform Commission has clearly identified major project construction as an important starting point for targeted regulation. In the specific implementation, there are seven major engineering packages, which are major network projects such as information grid oil and gas, health and old-age service, ecological and environmental protection, clean energy, food and water conservancy, transportation, oil and gas and mineral resources guarantee projects. It is worth noting that the cancelled projects include steel, nonferrous metals, cement, fertilizer and other industries with overcapacity. The author believes that these seven major engineering packages are "shortcomings" projects, which play a key role in stabilizing growth, restructuring and upgrading.

First of all, the construction of major projects as an important grasp of directional regulation and control released a signal to accelerate steady growth.

This year's economic performance showed downward pressure. In the third quarter, China's economy grew by 7.3%, which was lower than the annual growth target. The economic slowdown means that in less than a month and a half of this year, steady growth may return to its primary position Regulation will definitely increase.

In the "troika" that drives economic growth, foreign trade growth is weak, and the role of domestic consumption is increasing, but it is still not enough to keep economic growth within the target range, so directional regulation and control of a number of major engineering investments will become stable growth Heavy weapon.

Taking traffic engineering as an example, some data show that in the 21-day period from October 16 to November 5, the National Development and Reform Commission successively approved a total of 21 infrastructure projects for 16 railways and 5 airports. The total investment of these projects reached 693.374 billion yuan. This will significantly boost economic growth.

This year has relied on targeted regulation to hedge investment decline to a certain extent. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, fixed asset investment increased by a nominal 15.9% year-on-year in the first 10 months, a new low in the past 13 years. Although the growth rate slowed down, directional regulation hedged the slowdown in fixed asset investment, not only the growth of infrastructure investment accelerated In the first 10 months, the year-on-year growth was 22.6%, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous 9 months. Moreover, the growth rate of railway investment was more obvious. The railway completed investment in the first three quarters of this year increased by 23.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 14.5 faster than that in the first half of the year. Percentage points.

Second, there is no overcapacity in areas such as health care services and ecological and environmental protection. These major engineering investments will not lead to overcapacity. On the contrary, it will become a channel to dredge industries with overcapacity to a certain extent.

Currently, the utilization rate of China's production capacity is 78.7%, which is at a low level. The debt ratio of many industries has increased, and the profit level has fallen. This shows that the current problem of overcapacity in China is still very prominent, highlighting the slow and difficult process of resolving overcapacity.

This time the National Development and Reform Commission decentralized projects such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and cement. It is entirely up to the enterprise to pat its head to determine that project investment will not expand the production capacity of the surplus industry. The current market environment that forces excess capacity to withdraw has initially taken shape, and the market will force enterprises Suppress excess capacity.

The data shows that the profit margin of the steel industry in the first 9 months is 0.71%, and the electrolytic aluminum is negative 3.73%, which is basically a small profit or no profit. Therefore, the willingness of enterprises to expand production capacity has weakened significantly, and investment has become more rational. The seven major engineering packages can optimize the industrial structure so that the investment in the surplus industries can be transferred, and more investment can be made in transformation and upgrading projects to improve competitiveness.

Of course, decentralization of steel and other projects does not mean completely handing over the overcapacity reduction to the market. It is about establishing a long-term mechanism around giving full play to the decisive role of the market in allocating resources and better playing the role of the government.